Ohio State at Iowa prediction: Jeremiah Smith vs the nation's top scoring defense

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction and recent form

Iowa has spent the first month of the season looking like the most stubborn defense in the country. Ohio State still comes to Kinnick Stadium as the more complete team. The question Saturday is whether a Hawkeye unit that allows 8 points per game can hold up against a passing attack unlike anything it has seen. The other question is whether Ohio State has fixed the late-game softness that cost it in Austin.

Both teams arrive in good form, though the records hide some of the story. Iowa is 4-0 for the first time since 2021 and is coming off a 20-19 win at Michigan, won with a touchdown pass on the final play. It was the Hawkeyes' first win over a ranked Big Ten opponent in five years. College GameDay will be in Iowa City, and the crowd will be loud. Still, that 8-point average leans heavily on shutouts of Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa. The two real tests, Iowa State and Michigan, were decided by a combined four points. Ohio State is 3-1. The loss was a 24-23 defeat at Texas, where the Buckeyes gave up a 20-point fourth-quarter lead. They have since beaten Kent State 59-3 and Illinois 42-19. One bad quarter in September tells you less about this team than the three dominant games around it.

The matchup that decides this game is Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith against the Iowa secondary. Sayin has thrown for 1,206 yards and 10 touchdowns. Ohio State averages more than 365 passing yards a game, second-most in the country. Smith has 617 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four scores against Illinois. Iowa's defense is built to keep everything in front of it and make offenses string together long drives. That approach gets harder with free safety Tyler Brown out and cornerback Darion Jones questionable. When a defense lacks depth behind its starting corners, it has to choose between giving Smith safety help and keeping enough players near the line to stop the run.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

Iowa's best path is to shorten the game on the ground. The Hawkeyes average 6.53 yards per carry, best in the Big Ten. Kamari Moulton leads four running backs who already have more than 100 yards each. That matters because Illinois ran for 199 yards against Ohio State last week. If Iowa can stay ahead of the chains on early downs, Hank Brown can stick to short, safe throws. He has five touchdowns and no interceptions so far. Long drives would also keep Sayin on the sideline. Ohio State has its own running problems. Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson have not consistently gotten to the second level, and Iowa allows under 90 rushing yards a game. Expect the Buckeyes to win this through the air rather than by grinding it out.

There are also question marks up front for Ohio State. Tackle Phillip Daniels and tight end Bennett Christian are questionable, and so is Jay Timmons on defense. The good news for the defensive line is that Zion Grady has been cleared to return. The forecast for Iowa City is mild, mid-60s with only a small chance of showers, so weather should not slow down the passing game or the kickers.

Ohio State should win this game, likely by about two touchdowns, but this is not one to expect a blowout in. Iowa's running game can keep the clock moving and keep the score close for a half. Our number on the spread matches the market at roughly two touchdowns, and our projected total sits on the posted 45.5. That leaves the moneyline as the only position. It is a short price, backing a team that has more ways to score and a quarterback-receiver pairing Iowa hasn't faced yet.

Prediction and market context