Red Sox at Yankees prediction: Schlittler vs a Judge-less lineup in Game 1

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees prediction and recent form

Cam Schlittler gives the Yankees the best pitcher in this series on the mound for Game 1, and that is the main reason New York should be favored on Tuesday night. The Red Sox bring a lineup that is healthier and deeper than the one they will face, though, and against a pitcher this good they may only need a couple of runs to make the price on the Yankees look short.

Schlittler earned the ball. The 25-year-old right-hander finished with an American League-best 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts over 193⅔ innings, and he is the favorite for the Cy Young. Boston also knows him well: in last year's deciding Wild Card game he struck out 12 Red Sox over eight scoreless innings. He misses bats with power stuff and does not give away free baserunners, so Boston's hitters face long odds of stringing hits together. They can realistically hope to raise his pitch count and reach the Yankees' middle relief before the late innings.

Boston's recent form deserves a careful read. The Red Sox were 32-46 in late June, then went 32-5 in one stretch that included a sweep of the Yankees at Fenway, and they finished 87-75. That run is real, but a stretch like that overstates a team's normal level, and Boston hit poorly with runners in scoring position in September. The Yankees, at 93-68, were steadier all year and won the season series 7-6, including four of six at Yankee Stadium.

Boston has not named its Game 1 starter, and the choice matters. Sonny Gray (18-5, 2.72 ERA) is the likeliest pick and would bring his usual mix of breaking balls and command. The case for rookie left-hander Payton Tolle (3.03 ERA, 171 strikeouts) is sharper: he allowed one earned run in 13 innings against New York this season. The Yankees' likely lineup leans left-handed, which gives a lefty like Tolle or Ranger Suárez an edge.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

That lineup is where the Yankees are vulnerable. Aaron Judge has a strained right calf and has not done baseball activities since mid-September, and the club has been planning to play this series without him. He also hit .174 in his short return from a rib fracture before the calf gave out. Giancarlo Stanton, also working back from a calf injury, may only be available to pinch-hit, and Trent Grisham's hamstring is still in question. Ben Rice is the main power threat left, supported by Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones and Heliot Ramos. That group is dangerous against right-handers and much easier to manage for a Boston staff that can bring in lefties. For the Red Sox, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Adley Rutschman, Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu give them the better top half, with the caveat that Contreras is only just back from a hand injury.

Late in the game, Boston's bullpen can match New York's. Aroldis Chapman has been outstanding at the back, and Garrett Whitlock and Erik Miller give the Red Sox two reliable bridges, although Justin Slaten and Tyron Guerrero are missing. New York's bullpen is deep, and Ryan Weathers is available in relief. The weather looks mild and calm, with nothing that should help either the hitters or the pitchers.

New York is priced around -150, which implies roughly a 60 percent chance to win. That is about right: Schlittler and home field outweigh the Yankees' thinner lineup. The prediction is New York, but it is only a modest edge at this price. The total sits at 6.5, which already reflects two strong pitching staffs, so there is no edge there.

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