Braves at Dodgers NLDS Game 2 prediction: Snell vs a tired Atlanta staff

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction and recent form

The Atlanta Braves won five of six meetings with the Los Angeles Dodgers this season and outscored them 26-15. They come into Game 2 of this Division Series with almost no pitching left to work with. Their best hope on Sunday night is that Chris Sale, at 37, can pitch on short rest and that Atlanta's lineup can handle a second straight elite left-hander.

The Dodgers have built this series around that second question. Atlanta had a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year, which means the Braves were about nine percent below a league-average offense against lefties. Their OPS was .696 against left-handers and .730 against right-handers. Los Angeles opened with Tarik Skubal and is expected to follow with Blake Snell. Snell missed most of the season with shoulder and elbow problems, but he was outstanding when healthy: a 1.90 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings. He felt groin tightness in a September start at Cincinnati and then pitched cleanly in his final tune-up. His high-spin fastball and big breaking ball should hold down an Atlanta lineup whose best hitters, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr., all sat in the .796 to .823 OPS range. Acuña went 1-for-9 against Philadelphia, and Austin Riley is coming off a career-low .654 OPS. Riley did hit a go-ahead three-run homer in Wild Card Game 1.

Sale is the reason this game isn't more lopsided. He finished the season with a 2.16 ERA over 162 2/3 innings. He threw 95 pitches in the Wild Card opener and then came back in Game 3 for the final four outs, including the strikeout of Bryce Harper, on 21 pitches. He says he would be ready, but manager Walt Weiss has said he will lean toward giving Sale more rest "if it's even close." Even if Sale starts, he probably won't go deep into the game. That puts the middle innings on a bullpen that finished fourth in ERA at 3.44 but has been noticeably worse against left-handed hitters since August. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are the left-handed bats Atlanta would most like Sale to face.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The Dodgers' offense has holes of its own. Ohtani has been hitting through knee and biceps problems and had a .666 OPS over the final two months. He won't pitch this postseason. Freeman posted a .451 OPS in September. Mookie Betts is carrying the lineup instead, with a 1.112 OPS and seven home runs in September. Will Smith hit .290/.400/.548 after coming back from a three-month neck injury. The season series is worth noting, but it was only six games, and Los Angeles's +201 run differential across the full season says more than Atlanta's 5-1 record against them.

The weather could matter. An extreme heat warning covers Los Angeles through Thursday, with afternoon highs near 100 degrees and an evening low of only about 78. First pitch is at 5 p.m. local time, and warm air helps fly balls carry. That works against the extra-base power both lineups depend on, though it doesn't change who has the advantage.

Los Angeles is the clear pick. Snell is rested and in form, the Dodgers have three trusted left-handers in Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Jack Dreyer to finish the game, and Atlanta is choosing between a short-rest Sale and another bullpen game. The price is the problem. Los Angeles was around -205 for the opener, and Sunday's line should land in similar territory. At that number, the edge is already priced in. Sale's uncertain workload and the heat make the total too volatile to bet with any confidence.

Prediction and market context