Yankees at Rays prediction: Schlittler answers Game 1 no-hitter

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction and recent form

Cam Schlittler was the best pitcher in the American League this year, and the New York Yankees need him now. They are down 1-0 in the Division Series after Drew Rasmussen no-hit them through seven and two-thirds innings at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay's lineup needs more than one swing to beat him, and that is the case for New York in Game 2.

Game 1 was a quirk of one night as much as a verdict on the Yankees. Rasmussen finished with 10 strikeouts. Austin Wells' eighth-inning double was New York's only hit, and Wells was then thrown out at third trying to stretch it. Jonathan Aranda's third-inning homer to right-center was the only run in the game. The same lineup scored 18 runs in a two-game Wild Card sweep of Boston, so a single shutout shouldn't rewrite the picture of this offense. It would be a mistake to treat one dominant start as a trend, though Rasmussen did show how Tampa Bay wants to win, with strikeouts, quick innings and a bullpen finishing the job.

The decisive matchup is Schlittler against a Rays lineup that has to earn its runs. Schlittler posted a 1.95 ERA with 239 strikeouts in 193.2 innings and had five days of rest before this start. Tampa Bay's lineup was good enough to win 98 games and take the top seed. Aranda showed in Game 1 that mistakes in the middle of the zone will get punished. Against an arm with this kind of strikeout rate, Tampa Bay will likely need to string together walks and a stray homer.

The Rays counter with Nick Martinez, who made his first All-Star team and went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings. He has held the Yankees to four runs in 16.2 innings this season. He is a deserving starter, not a fill-in. The gap between the two is real, though. Schlittler's ERA was well over a run lower, and his strikeout totals mean he is less reliant on defense and sequencing than Martinez is.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The bullpens are close to even, with different strengths. Tampa Bay has the more established back end in closer Bryan Baker, who throws triple-digit fastballs and a hard changeup, and setup man Kevin Kelly, who had a 2.44 ERA over 73.2 innings. The Rays also lack Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger, who finished the year on the injured list with forearm problems, and Shane McClanahan will not pitch in this series. New York has David Bednar, Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick for high-leverage innings, and added Ryan Weathers, who touched 96 mph while recovering from a left flexor strain. Clarke Schmidt, Kervin Castro and Fernando Cruz are all out for the Yankees.

The biggest absence is Aaron Judge. He has not played since straining his right calf on September 16 and was left off the ALDS roster, so this lineup has to produce without him. Weather won't matter inside the dome at Tropicana Field.

New York has the better starter, and the Rays have home field and a 1-0 lead. That makes this a close game, with a modest edge to Schlittler's side. The Yankees likely win a low-scoring game that comes down to the late innings. Lines for this game had not been posted when this was written, so any price is worth checking before acting on the pick. A Yankees moneyline at a short number is fine, while a long price would not justify it. There is no clear edge on the run line or total.

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