Rays at Yankees Game 4 prediction: Rodón vs a Judge-less lineup

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees prediction and recent form

If the Yankees are still playing on Thursday night, it will be because they fixed the thing that has hurt them most in this series. Tampa Bay leads the Division Series 2-0 and has held New York to two runs across two games at Tropicana Field. A win in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium would end it. Game 4 only happens if the Yankees avoid that, so this preview assumes the series comes back to the Bronx for one more night. In that case Carlos Rodón is the reason to pick New York over a Rays team that has been the steadier one all October.

The Rays won 98 games and the AL East. They have won this series by taking the small edges. Game 1 was a 1-0 result. Game 2 turned on a four-run fifth inning, capped by Richie Palacios's two-run single, after the Yankees committed four errors, three of them in the first inning. Those are not repeatable. A team that kicks the ball around like that usually plays cleaner the next time out, and that matters when Tampa Bay's offense depends on pressure and contact rather than damage. The Yankees did get something real from Ben Rice, who homered twice in Game 2, and Cam Schlittler's short outing says as much about the defense behind him as about his stuff.

The decisive matchup is Rodón against a Rays lineup that has to solve a left-hander at home. Rodón finished the season with a 2.67 ERA, and that number drops to 2.08 at Yankee Stadium. His career ERA against Tampa Bay is 2.95, and he threw eight scoreless innings against them on Sept. 22. He has been in the bullpen for the Yankees' first playoff games and has not started since, so he is rested. The question is how deep he can go and how much of a short start Aaron Boone has to cover. The Rays have not announced their Game 4 starter. Tampa Bay has leaned on its relievers, and Freddy Peralta's 4⅔ innings in Game 2 was a heavy workload that could limit how Kevin Cash uses him if this turns into another bullpen-heavy night.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The bigger problem for New York is the lineup. Aaron Judge has been ruled out for the series with a right calf strain, and without him the Yankees have scored two runs in two games. Yankee Stadium helps. They hit for power at home, and Rice and the middle of the order can reach the short porch. But the Rays have the pitching depth to keep the game close and make New York earn its runs without Judge.

Conditions should not decide anything. It should be about 63 degrees and clear, with a light northwest breeze, so the ball will carry normally and neither side gets help from the weather.

New York should win a close game. Rodón gives the Yankees the best starter in the matchup, and a home crowd facing elimination counts for something. Tampa Bay's depth keeps this within a run or two, and with the Rays' starter unannounced and Game 3 still to play, the line may move. The Rays are still the likelier team to win the series. Game 4 is a narrower question, and Rodón is the clearest edge in it.

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