Dodgers at Brewers prediction: Misiorowski vs Skubal in NLCS Game 1

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction and recent form

Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball in Game 1 of the NLCS with a week of rest and a record that suits this series. He led the majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.80) this season, and he has held the Dodgers to a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts and three walks in 17 career innings. The Dodgers are the reigning back-to-back champions and have a worthy answer in Tarik Skubal. They have not officially named their Game 1 starter, but Skubal is the expected choice. That makes a good case for Milwaukee at home and a thin margin for anyone leaning too hard either way.

Both teams arrive in good shape. The Brewers won a franchise-record 103 games, beat San Diego 3-1 in the Division Series, and ended a 12-game road playoff losing streak along the way. The Dodgers beat Atlanta by the same series score. Skubal struck out seven over six innings of one-run ball in his Division Series start, and he carries a 1.97 ERA across seven career postseason starts. Short series reward the team with the better top-end arms, and that is why this one looks so even. Milwaukee also won four of seven meetings in the regular season, though the Dodgers swept the Brewers in last year's NLCS. One October result shouldn't carry too much weight in either direction.

The decisive piece is how long Misiorowski lasts. San Diego fouled off about 30 of his pitches in the Division Series and drove him out early. A lineup of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith and Kyle Tucker will make him work in the same way. If he gets past the fifth inning, the Brewers' bullpen can be used on their terms. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and closer Trevor Megill finished the Division Series, and Ashby has pitched four times in five days, so his workload is worth watching. Milwaukee's left-handers also matter in the late innings against Freeman, Ohtani, Tucker and Max Muncy.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

Skubal has to handle a Brewers lineup built on speed and contact. Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, William Contreras and Christian Yelich can all pressure a left-hander, and Garrett Mitchell's defense in center field has already saved one game this October. Milwaukee's order may shift against a lefty, but the group has the depth to avoid getting stuck on a single matchup.

The Dodgers' injury list is the situational factor that matters most. Ohtani is dealing with right biceps and left knee issues, Freeman has a sore right knee, and infielder Rojas left an earlier game with back pain and is uncertain for Game 1. Blake Treinen is unlikely to pitch this postseason. Milwaukee reported no injuries. Home field, the extra rest for its best pitcher and a healthier roster tilt a close game toward the Brewers.

Expect a low-scoring game decided by one or two swings, with both bullpens involved before the end. The Brewers are the narrow pick, but this is close to a coin flip with a slight lean to the home side, so the value depends on the price. Milwaukee is worth backing at around even money or better. At a short number, it isn't. I have no strong view on the run line or the total.

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