Patriots at Jaguars prediction: Maye's patched line vs a rested edge

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction and recent form

Two 1-1 teams meet in Jacksonville pulling in opposite directions. The Patriots have the best defense either side has seen so far and an offense that cannot get out of its own way; the Jaguars have the quarterback playing at the higher level and a defense that has been giving up ground all month. Whichever of those truths holds up for three hours decides a game the market has priced almost exactly in the middle.

New England's last two weeks tell the story cleanly. They lost 13-10 in Seattle, then beat Pittsburgh 20-3 without throwing a touchdown pass — 13 points allowed across two games, second in the league in EPA per play on defense, which is another way of saying almost nothing easy has been available against them. Christian Gonzalez has allowed five catches for 24 yards on 13 targets and erased DK Metcalf for an afternoon. Milton Williams has been the interior disruptor New England paid for. What they do not have is a functioning passing game: Drake Maye has one touchdown and four interceptions, 386 yards in two starts, and is a year removed from finishing second in MVP voting. A.J. Brown, acquired for a future first-round pick, is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and will not be back for weeks, which leaves Romeo Doubs, Hunter Henry and a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to carry the load.

Jacksonville's two games flatter and deceive in the same way. The 34-10 win over Cleveland was genuinely dominant and Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns in it; the 20-13 loss at Denver, where a 13-3 lead evaporated and Lawrence finished 17-of-29 for 189 yards with an interception, was not the same team. Liam Coen is 14-4 in the regular season and had nine straight wins before Mile High. The honest read on both offenses is somewhere between those poles.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The matchup that settles it is New England's protection against Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Mike Onwenu is out with an ankle injury and Morgan Moses has been limited all week with a foot problem, so the Patriots are patching an interior that had, to that point, been excellent — one sack and 22 pressures allowed in two weeks. Jacksonville's edge pair had three sacks in the opener and none in Denver. If they get home against a reshuffled front, Maye's month gets worse, because New England has no receiver left who wins quickly enough to bail him out.

The counterweight is that Jacksonville has been soft between the twenties, surrendering 6.1 yards per play, 29th in the league. Their run defense remains stout — 87 rushing yards allowed to Cleveland, 104 to Denver — which pushes New England toward the throws it is currently worst at. Jacksonville's report is clean: Jakobi Meyers, Cole Van Lanen, Robert Hainsey and DaVon Hamilton were all limited but are expected to play. A 1 p.m. kickoff in the mid-80s in Florida is its own tax on a visiting team, though the forecast does not threaten the passing or kicking game.

Jacksonville is the side to be on, but only just. The projection has this landing inside a field goal, which is why the spread and the total are both places to stand aside.

Prediction and market context