Jets at Lions prediction: Glenn's defense meets a whole Detroit line

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions prediction and recent form

Detroit is the better team in this game, but the Jets are bringing a defense built by someone who knows exactly what Ford Field looks like from the other sideline. Aaron Glenn ran Detroit's defense for four seasons before taking the New York job, and his offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, came out of the same building. The reunion angle is fun; the football reason it matters is that the Jets' defense has been the best thing either team has done through two weeks, and the Lions' defense has been the worst.

Both teams are 1-1, and both records flatter and mislead in opposite directions. Detroit survived New Orleans 31-30 in overtime after letting a 21-point lead evaporate, then lost 41-31 in Buffalo in a game where the Bills scored touchdowns on their first three possessions and finished with 446 yards and 203 on the ground. That second result is doing most of the talking about this defense, and Buffalo is the wrong measuring stick for anyone. Still, the alarm is real: Detroit is playing without both starting safeties, with Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) again unable to practice this week, leaving Chuck Clark and Bishop Fitzgerald to handle the deep coverage and communication that went missing in Buffalo.

New York's counterpoint is a defense that held Green Bay under 200 yards and to 1-of-10 on third and fourth down, and has kept opponents under a quarter on third down overall. The problem is that the Jets lost that game 20-17 in overtime after leading 17-7 in the fourth, because the offense stopped moving. Geno Smith has been careful rather than productive — 462 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions — and the run game managed 67 yards at 2.5 a carry against the Packers after Breece Hall's efficient 102-yard opener. Without tight end Mason Taylor (thumb), the short game leans heavily on Garrett Wilson and on Hall catching the ball out of the backfield.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The decisive matchup is New York's interior rush against a Detroit line that finally looks whole. Christian Mahogany, Tate Ratledge and Blake Miller were all limited early in the week and all practiced Friday; Ben Bartch is out. The Jets counter without David Onyemata, and with Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs inside they do not generate the pocket-collapsing push that bothers Jared Goff. Goff has thrown six touchdowns without an interception and carved Buffalo up for 327 yards; given a clean middle, he and Amon-Ra St. Brown will find the soft spots quickly, and Jahmyr Gibbs stresses linebackers New York is already asking to cover.

Detroit's own pressure comes from Aidan Hutchinson, who has three sacks and 15 pressures while extending a sack streak to eight straight games. Against a Jets offense missing pieces and playing without Minkah Fitzpatrick on the other side, that is the likeliest source of the drive-killing plays Detroit's secondary cannot yet manufacture. Indoors on fast turf, weather removes itself as a variable, which suits Detroit's timing passing game.

Expect the Lions to score enough and the Jets' defense to keep it respectable rather than close.

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