Patriots at Bills prediction: Maye's turnovers meet Allen at home

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction and recent form

Buffalo comes into this AFC East opener unbeaten and looks like the more complete team. New England's problem is that Drake Maye's turnovers have become the main story of the Patriots' season, and they have to fix it in Orchard Park with a short-handed secondary and a patched-up offensive line.

The form gap is real, but it needs some context. The Patriots are the defending AFC champions and sit 1-2 after a 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. Maye went 14 of 25 for 199 yards there, threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and was pulled in the fourth quarter. He has six interceptions through three games and no touchdown passes in his last two. New England has scored just 29 points on 30 offensive drives. That is very poor, but some of the turnover damage looks like a slump rather than a permanent change in a quarterback this talented. Buffalo is 3-0 after beating Houston, Detroit and the Chargers. The 24-16 win over Los Angeles was messy: five giveaways, four sacks taken and a comeback that relied on Josh Allen's two rushing touchdowns. The Bills have also allowed 26 points a game, so their record makes them look cleaner than they have been.

The game probably turns on how New England's pressure meets Buffalo's protection. The Patriots blitz on roughly 45 percent of dropbacks, one of the highest rates in the league. They showed against the Chargers that Allen can be hurried into mistakes when the pocket collapses. But blitzing Allen is a gamble that needs tight coverage behind it, and New England is missing Christian Gonzalez, its top cornerback, as well as safety Brenden Schooler. Craig Woodson is questionable with a shoulder injury. If the extra rushers don't get home, Allen's scrambles and Buffalo's receivers, including a limited DJ Moore, will test a thinner back end. Christian Barmore's absence also takes away the interior push that usually lets New England pressure without sending extra rushers.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

On the other side, the Patriots' line is the bigger worry. Right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable with a foot injury, and third-string guard Ben Brown is expected to start at right guard after Greg Van Roten got hurt in Jacksonville. That is an awkward setup for a quarterback who needs clean early downs to get his rhythm back. Buffalo has some availability questions of its own. Cornerback Christian Benford and running back Ray Davis are questionable, and defensive tackle T.J. Sanders is doubtful after an appendectomy. Allen took a shot to his left knee against the Chargers, but he practiced fully and isn't on the injury report.

Weather shouldn't be a factor. Expect a mild, mostly dry afternoon in the mid-60s with a south-southwest breeze of 10 to 15 mph, which is fine for both passing and kicking.

Our numbers make Buffalo a little better than a two-in-three favorite and project a margin of about six points. That is just under the touchdown spread, so we have no position on it. Our projected total of roughly 48 to 49 points sits right on the market's 48.5, which also gives us no edge. The clearest view is the straight-up result: Allen at home, against a secondary without its best corner, should be enough. At -310, though, the price is steep, and a Maye who protects the ball could keep this close into the fourth quarter.

Prediction and market context