Buccaneers at Cowboys prediction: rookie QB meets a leaky Dallas defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys prediction and recent form

Dallas should win this one, and the only real argument is about how comfortably. The Cowboys are 2-2 and own one of the league's better offenses by expected points per play. The Buccaneers are 0-4 and come to Arlington on a short week with an undrafted rookie, Jalon Daniels, at quarterback because Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb. Mayfield is expected to be out three to six weeks, so Tampa Bay has no quick fix.

Both teams' recent results are more complicated than the records suggest. Tampa Bay's four losses add up to only 20 points, including 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay. Even so, the Bucs have failed to cover in every game, and their offense ranks in the bottom three by EPA per play. A team that keeps losing close games can be better than its record, and some of those results may be unlucky. But unlucky is hard to claim for an offense that scored 14 points in Week 4 and is now changing quarterbacks.

Dallas has been inconsistent in a different way. The offense, led by Dak Prescott, produces points on a large share of its drives, and the Over has hit in all four Cowboys games. The defense is the problem. It has allowed at least 20 points every week and 28 or more three times, and it sits among the three worst units in the league. That is why the Cowboys have been a win-or-lose team rather than a dominant one, and it is the main reason to expect Tampa Bay to score some.

Daniels is the central matchup. In his first start he threw two interceptions and one touchdown and ran for 55 yards. Todd Bowles said he "didn't panic," but the protection broke down on Tampa Bay's final drive. His mobility is a real asset against a Dallas defense that has given up the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season and ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed. Scrambles and designed runs, along with Bucky Irving on the ground, could keep drives moving. The risk is on the other side. A rookie who has to pass from behind against a Dallas rush that gets home will be in trouble, and the interception count from last week shows how quickly that can go wrong.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The Buccaneers' secondary is also thin. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison sat out Week 4 and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was banged up after the Packers game. Linebacker SirVocea Dennis and edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. were also listed as questionable earlier in the week. Prescott can take advantage of a weakened back end, and Dallas's best path is to score early and make Daniels throw. The Cowboys may also get guard Tyler Smith back from injured reserve, which would help their line against Tampa Bay's front.

The situation favors Dallas as well. The game is indoors at AT&T Stadium on a fast surface, so weather won't affect the passing or kicking game. Tampa Bay is on short rest with a quarterback who has one start behind him.

Our model puts Dallas at roughly 73% to win and projects a margin of about eight points, a little inside the 10-point market number. The 47.5 total is slightly above our projected scoring of about 46. We don't see enough of an edge in either number to take a position, even though the Cowboys' offense and Tampa Bay's passing-game problems both point toward points. The moneyline at -625 is expensive, but Dallas is the clear winner in this matchup, and that is where our position sits.

Prediction and market context