Raiders at Patriots prediction: Maye's turnovers vs a Raiders offense without a run game

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction and recent form

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots are the better side here, but the Las Vegas Raiders have done enough in the first month to make this more than a routine home-favorite game. New England is 2-2 and coming off its best result of the year. Las Vegas is 3-1 and has been a tough out, with its only loss coming to Kansas City last week.

The Patriots' win at Buffalo in Week 4 is the reason to trust them. Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns and added 54 rushing yards in a 29-26 victory. That is the version of him New England wants every week. It comes with a caveat. He has also thrown seven interceptions through four games, and one big afternoon against a division rival shouldn't erase that. The turnover risk is the main way this game gets away from the home team. Maye is on the practice report with a right shoulder issue, but he was a full participant on Wednesday, so there is no sign it will limit him.

The decisive matchup is Las Vegas's offense against New England's defense. The Patriots rank eighth in opponent success rate, and the Raiders' ground game is a real problem. Las Vegas is 29th in rushing EPA and 30th in rushing success rate. That puts a lot of weight on Kirk Cousins to move the offense through the air on third-and-medium, and Cousins has spread 11 touchdown passes across seven different receivers, which says more about a lack of one go-to target than about his health. The receiver room is thin. Jalen Nailor is in concussion protocol and unlikely to play, and Jack Bech is out with a fractured forearm. Dont'e Thornton is back at practice after a stint on injured reserve. Brock Bowers is limited with a knee issue, and his status matters most, since he is the player who could still win a short-area matchup against New England's linebackers.

Head-to-head and tactical matchup

The Patriots have their own concerns. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis III (neck) did not practice Wednesday, and Karon Prunty (hamstring) joined them. Wideout Mack Hollins was also out. Those are the players who matter against a Raiders passing game that has to win outside, so Friday's report is worth watching. Christian Barmore, Rhamondre Stevenson and tackle Morgan Moses were limited, which suggests they could still play. If Gonzalez sits, Cousins gets a softer target, and the Patriots' pass rush has to cover for it.

Las Vegas's offensive line has its own questions, with Jackson Powers-Johnson, Spencer Burford and Trey Zuhn all limited. A shaky interior against a Patriots front that has been disruptive makes the already stalled run game even harder to fix.

The market agrees with the lean, with New England around -192 on the moneyline and -3.5 on the spread, and a total of 45.5. A reasonable caution is that the Raiders are 4-0 against the spread and have covered the last three meetings with New England. A line that has moved a long way from its preseason number on a four-game sample deserves some skepticism. Our projection is a New England margin of about four to five points and a total close to the posted number, so the spread and total offer no clear edge. The moneyline is the one place where the Patriots' win probability, about 64%, lines up with what we want to say. The game is still a close one, because Maye's turnovers and the secondary injuries both give Las Vegas a path.

Prediction and market context